Macroeconomics and Model Uncertainty

This paper provides some reflections on the new macroeconomics of model uncertainty. Model uncertainty is argued to have important positive and normative implications for macroeconomic analysis. We provide a general discussion of the relationship between macroeconomic models that assume a specific model and those that do not and provide some examples from the existing literature. Our discussion also provides some suggestions on directions for future research in this area. William A. Brock Department of Economics University of Wisconsin 1180 Observatory Drive Madison, WI 53706-1393 [email protected] Steven N. Durlauf Department of Economics University of Wisconsin 1180 Observatory Drive Madison, WI 53706-1393 [email protected] “The owl of Minerva begins its flight only with the onset of dusk.” G. W. F. Hegel, Elements of the Philosophy of Right